SECTORAL AND REGIONAL CONCENTRATION OF TAX ARREARS IN UZBEKISTAN: STATISTICAL AND FISCAL STABILITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This article examines the sectoral and regional concentration of tax arrears in Uzbekistan and its implications for fiscal stability using statistical analysis. The study analyzes the distribution of tax arrears across economic sectors and regions, identifying the degree of concentration and its relationship with fiscal risks. The findings show that the largest share of tax arrears is concentrated in commercial organizations, particularly in the manufacturing and construction sectors, while regionally the highest concentration is observed in Tashkent city, Tashkent region, and Andijan region. The accumulation of tax arrears among large enterprises is identified as a systemic fiscal risk factor that may undermine government revenue stability and increase fiscal vulnerability. The results of the study contribute to the development of analytical insights for improving tax debt management mechanisms, reducing fiscal risks, and strengthening budgetary stability.